MANILA (October 4) — Motorists may face a split picture at the pumps next week as gasoline prices could stay flat or dip slightly, while diesel is set for another hike, industry projections showed Friday.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said gasoline prices are projected to either decrease by ₱0.10 per liter or rise by the same amount, depending on global trading trends. Diesel, meanwhile, is expected to go up by ₱0.80 to ₱1.00 per liter.
For consumers, that means jeepney and bus operators — who mostly run on diesel — could see operating costs climb again, raising the risk of fare adjustment petitions. Households that rely on diesel for generators or delivery vehicles may also feel the squeeze, while private car owners using gasoline may get a brief reprieve.
Bellas explained that the mixed forecast is being driven by global supply dynamics.
“Crude oil prices have declined sharply this week due to concerns about a market glut from the prospect of higher OPEC+ production output,” he said. “However, Asian diesel market fundamentals remain supported as regional flows shift to the West to meet demand in the US and Europe, with refinery maintenance, peak harvest demand, and Russia’s partial diesel export ban raising the risk of shortages.”
Gasoline prices in Asia, he noted, have eased from record highs as inventories build and seasonal demand wanes. Still, bullish factors remain, including refinery outages, stronger-than-expected demand from Indonesia, and Russia’s gasoline export ban.
Bellas also pointed to the weakening Philippine peso, which has slipped to ₱58 against the US dollar, as an added upward pressure. “The weaker peso further increases the cost of importing fuel,” he said.
Industry players are expected to announce final pump price adjustments on Monday, to take effect Tuesday, Oct. 8.
For an ordinary motorist filling up a 40-liter tank, the projected changes could mean saving ₱4 on gasoline if prices fall, or paying an extra ₱32 to ₱40 if using diesel.
