MANILA(March 17) — The Philippines may face weaker harvests of its two key staple crops in the first quarter of the year, with projections from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showing declines in both palay and corn production compared with the same period last year — a trend that analysts say could add pressure to food supply management and farm-sector recovery.
Based on standing crops as of Feb. 1, palay (unhusked rice) production is estimated at 4.36 million metric tons (MT) in the first quarter, 7.1 percent lower than the 4.70 million MT recorded in the same quarter of 2025.
The latest estimate is also slightly below the 4.45 million MT projection issued a month earlier, reflecting a continuing downward adjustment in expected harvests.
The PSA attributed the projected decline partly to a reduction in harvest area, which may drop to 1.08 million hectares, or 6.2 percent lower than the 1.15 million hectares harvested during the same period last year.
Average yield per hectare is also expected to edge down to 4.06 MT, slightly below the 4.09 MT recorded in 2025.
As of Feb. 1, farmers had harvested 264,570 hectares, or 24.6 percent of the projected harvest area, producing around 981,640 MT of palay.
Crop monitoring data show that of the 1.21 million hectares of standing palay crops nationwide, 39.6 percent were in the reproductive stage, 35.6 percent in the vegetative stage, and 24.7 percent already maturing.
But planting progress also appears slower than anticipated. Of the 1.01 million hectares that farmers initially intended to plant during the January–March season, only 402,170 hectares, or 39.9 percent, had actually been planted as of early February.
Corn production also projected to decline
Corn production, a critical feed input for the livestock and poultry sectors, is also projected to fall.
The PSA estimates first-quarter corn output at 2.32 million MT, or 3.4 percent lower than the 2.40 million MT produced in the same period in 2025.
The decline is largely linked to shrinking harvest areas. The agency estimates the corn harvest area for the quarter may fall to 612,600 hectares, a 5.3 percent decrease from 646,650 hectares harvested during the same period last year.
Despite the reduced area, average corn yield is expected to improve slightly to 3.79 MT per hectare, up 1.9 percent from the 3.72 MT recorded a year earlier.
As of Feb. 1, about 196,100 hectares, or 32 percent of the projected harvest area, had already been harvested, generating around 672,010 MT of corn.
Among the 606,990 hectares of standing corn crops, 39.3 percent were in the reproductive stage, 31.7 percent maturing, and 29 percent still in the vegetative phase.
Planting progress for corn has also been uneven. Farmers had intended to plant 437,120 hectares during the quarter, but only 190,490 hectares, or 43.6 percent, had been planted as of early February.
Structural pressures on agriculture
The projected declines underscore persistent challenges in Philippine agriculture, where production volatility continues to be shaped by weather disruptions, high farm input costs, and shifting planting decisions among smallholder farmers.
Rice and corn remain the backbone of the country’s food system. Rice is the national staple, while corn is vital for the livestock and poultry industries, meaning fluctuations in supply can ripple through food prices and rural incomes.
Agriculture observers note that even modest declines in domestic harvests can influence government decisions on imports and food supply management, particularly as the country continues to balance farm protection with efforts to keep consumer prices stable.
The latest PSA estimates highlight the fragile balance facing the farm sector — where improving productivity remains a central challenge even as demand for food continues to grow.
