MANILA (September 6) — The Philippines has established a new military post in the Taiwan Strait, which observers say could strengthen Manila’s ability to monitor the disputed waterway but also risks bringing the country deeper into a possible battle between China and Taiwan.
The Mahatao Forward Operating Base is located on Batan Island, approximately 120 miles south of Taiwan. It is the Philippine Armed Forces’ largest military investment in the strategically important Batanes island group.
Although observers say the station would not immediately affect Chinese marine activities in the canal, it does reflect Manila’s intention to dissuade Beijing by building up its military rather than relying on neutrality to safeguard it.
In recent years, China has increased the frequency of its large-scale military exercises in Taiwan, regularly deploying its assets to the island to mimic a blockade.
Beijing has not ruled out using force to impose its will on Taiwan, which it views as a renegade province.
Here are the reasons the Philippines feels it cannot remain neutral in a battle involving Taiwan, as well as how the new facility fits into its security strategy.
Geographically, neutrality is impossible
The Philippines is important to any hypothetical Taiwan invasion scenario, whether Manila wants to be involved or not.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had stated that the Philippines would be dragged “kicking and screaming” into any war over Taiwan due to location and the presence of approximately 200,000 Filipino workers on the self-ruled island.
According to Rommel Ong, an ex-Navy vice commander and intelligence chief, the Luzon Strait, where the newly built base is located, is a 200-mile-wide waterway that Chinese forces would most likely need to dominate in order to effectively assault Taiwan.
“We can always stick our heads into the ground and wish that the Chinese will be benevolent enough not to get us involved in any future conflict,” Ong said. “But President Marcos is correct. Even if we stay neutral, we will be dragged into the conflict because of geographical proximity and the presence of our OFWs in Taiwan.”
“If Beijing really intends to physically attack Taiwan, they have to control the Bashi Channel,” Ong told reporters.
“To do so, they will be compelled to occupy key islands in the Batanes Group of Islands because of its strategic location.”
The AFP has publicly acknowledged this reality. Armed Forces Chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. told troops in northern Luzon in April to prepare “for actions in case there is an invasion of Taiwan,” saying the Philippines would “inevitably” become involved in such a conflict.
Base is designed for monitoring
So, what will the AFP accomplish with its new northern outpost?
The complex will house Navy and Marine forces responsible for monitoring the Luzon Strait and defending the Batanes islands. The AFP describes the base as a “platform for territorial defense, maritime domain awareness, humanitarian assistance, and disaster response operations.”
During the facility’s inauguration, Northern Luzon Command chief Lt. Gen. Fernyl Buca stated that it “strengthens our ability to defend the northern frontier” and ensures that troops in the northern command, along with the Province of Batanes, “can respond swiftly to both security challenges and disasters.”
According to Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, Navy spokesman for the West Philippine Sea, the installation will enable Philippine forces to “secure and protect what is ours in the maritime domain further than we have right now.”
However, many believe the base’s immediate military influence will be modest.
“The establishment of the facility will not affect deployment of Chinese government and militia vessels in the Luzon Strait or Balintang Channel,” says Ong. Instead, its utility is mostly in surveillance—if it becomes “a local node for maritime domain awareness, connecting other monitoring stations such as Mavulis and Basco, then connecting them to the central node based here in Manila.”
According to Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies fellow and maritime security analyst Collin Koh, the base has two uses based on its intended facilities.
“On the one hand, given it overlooks the strategic Bashi Channel, the [forward operating base] has maritime defense and security utility,” stated Koh. “On the other hand, this [forward operating base] can facilitate non-combatant evacuation operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan.”
“I believe the Taiwan crisis scenario has been brewing for a while, so from a practical standpoint, this FOB plan was somewhat belated,” said Koh. “Given the heightening tensions in Taiwan Strait, it’s considered a bold move given ongoing tensions with Beijing, especially given the latter’s rhetoric and coercive acts in [the West Philippine Sea].”
In July, Taiwan began one of the longest and biggest military exercises in its history, a 10-day exercise designed to test defenses against a possible Chinese invasion.
Beijing has also taken offense at Marcos’ statements that the Philippines would inevitably become engaged in a future confrontation over Taiwan.
The facility was activated just after the AFP reported an increase in Chinese marine activity in the region.
The first time maritime security specialists have seen such behavior so far north was in August, when three armed Chinese Coast Guard warships were seen in a “bracketing pattern” around Batanes.
Large, armed cutters with 37mm and 76mm guns, the three ships took up positions on Batanes’ eastern and western coasts.
Hundreds of miles to the southwest, China typically deploys its ships to swarm the waters off disputed areas in the South China Sea. Beijing often maintains that its “patrols” in the South China Sea are lawful exercises of Chinese sovereignty and rejects the 2016 arbitral decision that invalidated its expansive maritime claims.Koh cautioned that “besides the rhetoric coming from Beijing, we must expect Chinese maritime forces to be observed operating more frequently close to the island in the foreseeable future.”
According to Ong, “The best long-term solution for the country is to deter China now by strengthening our defenses, disrupting their current calculations, and deterring it.”
