DAVAO CITY (September 25) — MINDANAO has enough electricity to meet current demand, but the region’s power cushion remains vulnerable to another major plant breakdown, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) warned Wednesday.
The warning comes even as the Mindanao grid has returned to normal following the synchronization of several generating units that had been forced offline.
For households and businesses, the message is straightforward: the immediate power squeeze has eased, but the risk of another grid alert has not disappeared.
Milfrance Capulong, NGCP regional corporate communications and public affairs officer, said the forced outages involving units of GNPower Kauswagan (GNPK) in Lanao del Norte and Therma South Inc. (TSI) in Davao have been resolved.
“The coal plants on forced outage have all synchronized back to the grid,” Capulong said during a press conference at The Royal Mandaya Hotel on September 23.
More supply than demand—for now
NGCP figures showed about 2,984 megawatts (MW) of available generation against Mindanao’s 2,656-MW peak demand, leaving an operating reserve of around 227 to 300 MW.
That means the grid currently has a buffer if a generating unit suddenly trips offline.
But that buffer can narrow quickly when a large power plant goes down.
Capulong said yellow or red alerts remain possible because forced outages are unpredictable.
“Ang forced outage, hindi natin controlled,” she said.
For consumers who have endured previous power interruptions and alerts, the latest assurance therefore comes with an important qualification: grid stability depends heavily on generating plants staying online.
Why is Mindanao still exporting power?
The return to normal operations has also revived a question among consumers: If Mindanao has experienced power alerts, why is electricity being sent to the Visayas?
Capulong said Mindanao is exporting electricity only because it currently has excess capacity.
“Na-stabilize na atong Mindanao. Nag-aexport na ta og excess power sa ilaha [Visayas] through our Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection,” she said.
Through the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project, as much as 400 MW can be transferred to the Visayas when Mindanao has sufficient excess supply.
But exports stop when Mindanao itself needs the electricity.
During an alert, Capulong said, available generation is retained for Mindanao’s requirements.
So the issue is not simply whether Mindanao produces more electricity than it consumes. The critical question is how much reserve remains after meeting demand—and how quickly that reserve can disappear when a major plant fails.
Heat and El Niño add another risk
The outlook could become more difficult if extreme heat and El Niño conditions reduce generation from hydroelectric plants.
“El Niño affects the generation sector greatly,” Capulong said, particularly because of its impact on hydropower.
Lower water levels can reduce hydroelectric output at a time when households and businesses are already using more electricity to cope with heat.
NGCP stressed that it does not generate electricity.
“Kung walang generation, kung walang ipoproduce na power, wala kaming ihahatid,” Capulong said.
The agency’s role is to transmit electricity from generating plants to distribution utilities—the “highway” of the power system, as Capulong described it.
Christmas demand looms
The next test could come as electricity use rises toward the holiday season.
More commercial activity, Christmas lighting and continued hot weather could push demand higher, putting pressure on the reserve margin.
NGCP is urging households and businesses to conserve electricity, particularly during peak-demand periods.
For Mindanao communities, the latest figures provide temporary relief—but they also highlight a continuing vulnerability in the region’s power system.
The grid is back to normal. The challenge now is keeping enough generating capacity online to keep it that way.
