DAVAO CITY —– The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday raised the El Niño Alert status as it expects the weather phenomenon to emerge in the coming months starting June.
In a statement, PAGASA administrator Vicente B. Milano said his agency “Has been continuously monitoring the developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific. Recent conditions and model forecasts indicate that El Niño may emerge in the coming season (June-July-August) at 80% probability and may persist until the first quarter of 2024. With this development, the PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño alert.
Milano explained, El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). When conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next two months at a probability of 70% or more, an El Niño ALERT is issued.
Citing their observation, the statement added “El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could have negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. However, over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected.”
The agency said it will will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.
The Impact:
The Asian Disaster Prepared ness Center stated that “During El Niño, the consistently low annual rainfall over river basins leads to a significant decrease in the water inflows in major reservoirs. Worsening decreases in inflow result in curtailment in the domestic and irrigation water supply, thus causing water rationing in residential areas and reduction in irrigated farmlands. The agricultural sector is affected by widespread water shortages induced by El Niño, which is also when crop production damage is highest, not only in upland and rainfed areas, but also in lowland irrigated areas.”
It emphasized “The high temperature and rapid evaporation of surface water during El Niño create unfavorable conditions for marine fishes. Production losses are caused by drying of fish ponds, shorter production cycles, stunted fish growth, and fish mortalities from stress, poor water quality and disease. El Niño-related drought events are also associated with indirect environmental effects. Due to the long dry spell that moves into the otherwise wet season, forest fire destruction has steadily increased in recent years (Asian Disaster Preparedness Center).”
IN 2019, farmers suffered huge loss due to El Niño.
