MANILA (May 25) — Farmers and fishing communities across Mindanao and the Visayas are being warned of tightening water supply in the coming months, as scientists flag the possible return of a “very strong” El Niño that could sharply cut rainfall across at least 49 provinces by October.
Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. said most of the affected provinces are in the Visayas and Mindanao, where rainfall could drop to just 41 to 80 percent of normal levels — a decline that directly threatens rice fields, corn areas, and irrigation-dependent farms.
By November, parts of Northern Luzon may face even harsher conditions, with rainfall plunging to as low as 20 percent of average.
For Mindanao farmers already dealing with rising input costs and irregular weather, officials say the coming dry months could force major changes in planting schedules.
“We cannot expect enough supply of water from rainfall,” Solidum warned, advising farmers to adjust planting calendars or secure reliable irrigation before the dry conditions peak.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) sees a 92 percent chance of El Niño forming between June and August, starting weak but potentially strengthening into “strong” conditions by September to November — with a 30 percent chance of becoming “very strong” by late 2026.
A brief window of normal rainfall is still expected in June, while some areas may even see regular rain in August and September. But meteorologists caution that this could quickly shift into a widespread dry spell heading into the last quarter of the year.
For rural communities in Mindanao, where farming and fishing remain lifelines, the warning goes beyond crops.
El Niño also affects coastal waters by reducing nutrient upwelling — a process that helps sustain fish populations — potentially lowering fish catch in key fishing grounds.
“Warmer waters prevent colder, nutrient-rich waters from rising,” Solidum explained, noting possible impacts on marine food supply.
Government agencies have begun rolling out early mitigation efforts.
The Department of Agriculture has activated its El Niño Task Force to protect food production, while the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) is distributing solar-powered irrigation pumps to drought-prone farming areas.
Each unit, worth about P165,000, can pump up to 50 cubic meters of water using solar energy and has already been deployed in some farming communities, including Aurora, where officials report daily savings in irrigation costs.
Authorities are also urging households across Mindanao to conserve water early, warning that prolonged dry conditions could strain dams and local supply systems if demand is not managed.
“We need to save water in our homes so that we can extend the supply in our dams,” Solidum said, also calling on water-dependent businesses to regulate usage.
While officials expect rainfall conditions to normalize by November, the warning for Mindanao communities is clear: prepare early, adjust planting cycles, and brace for a dry spell that could hit livelihoods hardest in rural and coastal areas.
