PAGASA predicts a potential La Niña commencing October

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DAVAO CITY(September 11) — Starting October 2025, the Philippines may have a minor La Niña phenomena, resulting in above-average rainfall in certain areas of the Davao region.

Engr. Alan Ray Ribo of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Davao revealed this during a recent Disaster Preparedness Committee meeting in Davao City.

“But this will probably be short-lived since it will be peaking in November and December; and it will gradually decrease up to the first quarter of next year,” Ribo stated.

According to Ribo, the La Niña was predicted due to a fall in temperature in the Pacific Ocean.

“Kung consistent nga naay -0.5 degree Celsius anomaly sa Pacific Ocean, merong probable na La Niña; pero kung -0.1 to -0.4 degree Celsius, considered neutral condition ang Pacific Ocean,” he said.

(La Niña is likely if the Pacific anomaly is consistently -0.5 degrees Celsius; however, if it is only -0.1 and up to -0.4 degrees Celsius, the Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state.)

As a result of the phenomenon and the Easterlies weather system, it is anticipated that October will see above-normal rainfall in the provinces of Davao Occidental, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental, which might cause flash floods, street flooding, and rain-induced landslides.

Additionally, the weather officer stated that rain is still predicted owing to localized thunderstorms, which are expected to occur primarily in the late afternoon to late evening.

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