Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division Weather Specialist Arianne Sioson says there is a more than 90% probability that El Niño conditions may develop in the coming months and could reach strong intensity later in the year. She says the phenomenon may bring hotter, and drier conditions and may also intensify the southwest monsoon, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall, flooding, and landslides. (Photo: KPM/PIA-10)
CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY (June 12) — Government agencies and local government units across Northern Mindanao are intensifying preparations for a possible El Niño episode expected to develop in the coming months, amid warnings of drought, water shortages, crop losses, and extreme heat.
The heightened preparedness follows President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s directive for government agencies to coordinate efforts to minimize the impact of the weather phenomenon on communities, agriculture, and vital resources.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), climate models show more than a 90-percent probability that El Niño conditions could develop during the June-July-August period and potentially intensify by the last quarter of the year.
Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division Weather Specialist Arianne Sioson explained that El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, disrupting weather patterns and often resulting in reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in the Philippines.
“If current projections continue, El Niño could reach strong intensity by September to November,” Sioson said.
While El Niño is often associated with drought, Sioson noted that it can also strengthen the southwest monsoon during the rainy season, increasing the risk of heavy rains, flooding, and landslides in some areas before prolonged dry conditions set in.
With the threat looming, the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (RDRRMC)-10 has directed local governments and member agencies to strengthen preparedness measures, including public information campaigns, monitoring of water and power supplies, forest fire prevention programs, and pre-disaster risk assessments.
Patrick Alain Callanta, officer-in-charge of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Division of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD)-10, said authorities are closely coordinating with local disaster councils and national agencies to update contingency plans and ensure the timely dissemination of advisories.
Among the potential impacts being monitored are drought-related crop damage, reduced irrigation water, livestock and fishery losses, declining dam levels, intermittent water supply, heat-related illnesses, and increased grass and forest fires.
The Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG)-10 has also directed governors, mayors, and barangay officials to review and update their El Niño action plans.
DILG-10 Local Government Development Division Chief Hazel Occeña said local governments have been advised to reassess their contingency plans, conduct risk assessments, inventory available resources, and prepare interventions based on PAGASA forecasts and scientific data.
The region’s preparations come as memories remain fresh of previous El Niño episodes that affected agricultural production, reduced water availability, and disrupted livelihoods in farming and fishing communities.
Authorities are urging residents to begin conserving water, stay hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to extreme heat, refrain from open burning, and closely monitor advisories from PAGASA and local disaster offices.
As Northern Mindanao braces for another possible dry spell, officials stress that early preparation and community cooperation will be critical in reducing the impact of El Niño on lives, livelihoods, and local economies.
